

If there were going to be big shock waves, you would see that already. “That said, a Russian default would no longer be any great surprise for the market as a whole.

This time, however, “it’s hard to say ahead of time 100%, because every sovereign default is different and the global effects would only be seen once it has happened,” said Daniel Lenz, head of euro rates strategy at DK Bank in Frankfurt, Germany. hedge fund whose collapse, it was feared, could have threatened the stability of the wider financial and banking system. government had to step in and get banks to bail out Long-Term Capital Management, a large U.S. Back then, Russia's default on ruble bonds came on top of a financial crisis in Asia. Investment analysts are cautiously reckoning that a Russia default would not have the kind of impact on global financial markets and institutions that the 1998 default did. WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT OF A RUSSIAN DEFAULT? Treasury Department's website says the sanctions permit Russia to continue to make debt payments. to allow it to go through in dollars, according to Kremlin-funded media outlet RT. Siluanov on Wednesday said there are risks the payment will not reach investors, claiming the decision was up to the U.S. The move, however, is also in line with efforts to restrict the outflow of foreign-currency reserves that have become scarcer due to the sanctions. So Russia has the money to pay but says it can't because of the sanctions that have restricted banks and frozen much of its foreign currency reserves. There's a 30-day grace period before Russia would be officially in default.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says the government has issued instructions to pay the coupons in dollars but added that if banks are unable to do that because of sanctions, the payment would be made in rubles. Western sanctions from the war in Ukraine have placed severe restrictions on banks and their financial transactions with Russia, and also have frozen much of the government's reserves of foreign currency.
